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LONDON—As Libya's official government asks for military help to tackle
rival militias, analysts warn the country is on the verge of breaking
apart.
There are also fears over Libya's role as an exporter of terror, amid
reports of growing links between Islamist militants in the country and
the Islamic State group.
Jason Pack, president of consultancy Libya-Analysis.Com, said Libya
has become the major source of destabilization in the region.
"Libya is a huge exporter of terror, arms and illegal migrants to
Europe," Pack said. "It is a force for destabilization in the Sahel
region in north Africa, in the southern Mediterranean and the Middle
East."
To counter the threat, France has employed U.S.-made Reaper drones at
its newly built military base in Madama, Niger, which lies 100
kilometers (62 miles) south of Libya, and it has ordered three more.
Libya's internationally recognized government is based in the eastern
city of Tobruk, after it was forced out of the capital in August. A
rival administration supported by Islamist fighters now controls
Tripoli and the port city of Misrata.
Monday, at an emergency meeting of the Arab League, the Tobruk
government appealed for military help. Aguila Saleh Issa, president of
the Libyan Council of Deputies, told league members that Libya wanted
them "to intervene to protect the vital institutions in the whole [of]
Libya and to prevent those terrorist groups from using violence in
Libya."
Egypt and the United Arab Emirates are supporting the Tobruk
government militarily and have carried out airstrikes on Islamist
militant positions, Pack said.
"This is an unwinnable conflict between the Tobruk government and the
Tripoli government," he said. "Fueling in more arms on one side or
another is going to drive to the country more towards chaos."
The rival governments and their allied militias are battling for the
biggest oil reserves in Africa, and that could split Libya, said
analyst John Hamilton of the group Cross Border Information.
"The threat of an actual partition of Libya is greater than it has
ever been," he said. "The split of Libya will not necessarily come
from a battle on some dividing line in the middle of the desert. It is
going to come through a conflict over control of these incredibly
valuable resources."
The United Nations has been trying to mediate talks, but they were
postponed again this week. Pack said there are no bargaining chips to
bring the rivals to the negotiating table.
"It is difficult to mediate a solution when both sides think that they
can win the conflict militarily," he said. "And that is why we have
seen an escalation."
Security services are concerned about the growing influence in Libya
of the terror group Islamic State. The group has sent a senior
commander to Libya to forge alliances with Islamist militias.
"I am not sure how much purchase he has outside of the tiny, tiny
group of maybe 500 to 600 people who have signed up to work with him,"
Pack said. "That said, it is still a dangerous situation, even if
there is not a command-and-control structure."
Three and a half years after the ouster of Moammar Gadhafi as Libya's
leader, analysts said, the loose coalition of rebels that spearheaded
the revolution has completely splintered — and the rival militias are
threatening the very future of the country.
Credit: Reuters
